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The consumer is ready, willing, able, wants to go; income growths are slower, will stay so but there is enough to go around. Where did Patanjali get it wrong because two years back there was the big Patanjali fear. Where do you think they really lost out in the race? Milind Sarwate: Several things where Patanjali went wrong. After initially going right in breaking open the category, breaking open the notion that someone like Baba Ramdev can set up an industry, there was really no articulated path to execution.

Even as recently as yesterday I saw one of his TV interviews live and he is speaking of a turnover of Rs 1 lakh crore from wherever. He is around Rs 8, crore now. So his dreams and aspirations are intact but for executing those, you need your own organisation. Strategy alone is not enough, you need a structure. You need processes and you need people. On scaling up on each of these, he did not go right. Secondly, you need some growth enablers.

For example, you need a very strong IT backbone for any company today. IT is needed for not only your transaction processing but also sometimes for your cost reduction or elimination and demand fulfilment with the greater digital intimacy requirements. I do not think Patanjali is geared for these. Secondly you also need a very strong chain of associates. You need a great supply chain. You need some credibility in the market. Trade equity is very badly needed which companies like HUL and Dabur and Marico and Godrej have cultivated over the years.

So the trade got quickly disillusioned with Patanjali. Many times, to use a market language woh maal dal ke chale jate hai, baad mein bika nahi, toh wapas kaun lega They go away dumping the goods. Who will take it back if it is not sold? The FMCG industry is very deceptive at one level. From outside, you see all glamour and glitz but there is a lot of grime inside and I was very happy that she pointed out that.

I have been making this point that companies which have a great supply chain are going to win the battle whereas people tend to watch the TV advertisements and feel that anybody who is able to present a very great picture, spending so much, will do well, get it wrong. Demand creation is not just enough because people are sold out on ideas anyway. You need to supply them at the right time and the other area where I feel Ramdev and Patanjali went wrong is their organisation idea, their institutionalisation of whatever… actually he had great points in the sense that he is actually saying I will do all these for charity so he could have attracted some really good talent which could have really stayed with for long.

It was kind of variant of the Amul story that is a new India but I think the execution watch… I mean it almost at least started out to be the ayurveda revolution, pretty much on the lines of the white revolution. Rama Bijapurkar: Absolutely.

What about the kind of growth that we have seen? Consumption has definitely been in a sweet spot. You spoke about the grime in the sector but at least when you are looking at it from outside, is it double digit growth? Do think that that is likely to continue, what could spur the continuation of demand? Rama Bijapurkar: We are not fully appreciating the amount of a cross category fighting that actually happens. Can you project yourselves using a better shampoo and making your skin better as well as by flashing a better phone which you are changing much more often.

Cross category is absolutely severe and so consumption overall is okay, but today, if data prices go up, we have to choose between our WhatsApp and our maybe not lipsticks but our WhatsApps and our skin creams I think it would be a real fight. I mean I know that there was a hoarding that came up from one of the electronics retailer a few years ago that said this Diwali buy electronics, do not buy sweets, sweets make you fat.

And to me that that summarises the whole cross-category fight that we are going to have. So, does FMCG have the potential? You are going to have to fight taking your kids to eat that pizza and you can signal status as well as through services. Today with UrbanClap, if the person is going to come in, do you need a head-to-toe makeover?

At home? Rama Bijapurkar: At home and blow dry it using whatever it is that they use. Do you really want to spend that much more? Does it have the potential? Am I betting on the winners? Is it a free for all? Do you think the market will still be dominated by three, four large players because they have supply, they have reach and they have comfort of the millennial also?

Rama Bijapurkar: Firstly about millennials. If you look at Indian millennials, the majority are poor. The millennials mirror the population in a young country. A large majority of them have very low incomes, come from families which are still struggling to get their homes and so we have to discount. The bottom half of India is going to continue to fuel whatever it is going to fuel and therefore it is advantage the incumbents because they know how to do this absolutely right.

As far as the upper end is concerned, and that is where all this talk of premiumisation comes in. Premiumisation is about moving the benefit and the price up. That is going to happen to some extent. Disruption already came from Patanjali. On the supply side, maybe it did not work out but on the other side, we have seen how quickly consumers can move when you have an attractive proposition to offer.

That is what we have to watch out for. In the categories in which the big boys are, maybe not much change. I would continue to bet on the big boys exactly as Milind says. Milind Sarwate: I also feel that the big boys, some of the overseas MNCs operating in India, have had a size impression which is much bigger than their actual clout in the market. So, disruption possibilities exist but breaking into the top three is going to be difficult.

Sure there was a fast growing yet minuscule population of the very rich, which continued to lap up everything from plasma TVs to Mercedes cars - but that was cold comfort for the majority of the marketers. More Telecom Lessons The Economic Times - 21 April The last time I wrote in this column about the telecom business, a senior person from within the business called saying he wanted to salute my courage - the 'fools rush in where telecom experts fear to tread' sort of courage. I probably have a death wish, so here I am again, venturing an opinion on the 'hot topic' of Reliance Infocom's proposition to consumers, and what works and does not work with Indian consumers.

In my line of work, there is a lot of agonizing about whether enough alternate ways of playing in any market have been explored. Yet there is a significant gap that exists between the aspiration of 'changing the rules of the game' and the actual development of a revolutionary business strategy to achieve it. The Economic Times - 24 March Before CK Prahalad described the 'poor', as an opportunity in the Harvard Business Review, and coined the elegant phrase " the bottom of the pyramid" to describe the large mass of poor people in the world, companies and their consultants used to spend lots of time and effort trying to define the size of the Indian market - is it million people?

Or a mere million? Consulting firms used say that international experience shows that markets "take off' when per capita income of about USD PPP is achieved. Today, the line seems to be "there is a lot of pent up demand in the lower income, and if you find the right strategy to tap the bottom of the pyramid, then the market in India could explode".

Here's to Co-Opetition The Economic Times - December It is with surprise that I read a recent spate of articles in the business press about one of the jewels in our crown - the dairy co-operative sector, of which Amul is the most celebrated offspring of the illustrious parent NDDB. It contains an interview with Dr Kurien, the founding father of the dairy co-operative sector, criticising the National Dairy Development Board's decision to float a subsidiary marketing company, which would partner with state level dairy co-operative federations in the form of joint ventures.

I am told that the only part of our economy that is thriving is services. And that even if you are marketing 'hard goods' like consumer durables or office automation equipment, in this new world of product parity, the service package that comes along with it is a bigger driver of market share and margins.

However in practice, it appears that the actual design of services is quite disconnected from what the consumer actually wants. A lot of service initiatives seem designed to address the frills but not deal with the fundamentals. And even the frills are not perfectly frilly, if the highly personalised letters I get from hotels and airlines and travel agents and banks are any indication. They press the flesh in print very well, with the almost hand written signature which I am sure costs a lot to print, but they don't bother to get my gender right.

Talk to a lot of business people, and the cynical will tell you "this is the end, send your children out of the country there is no future here". The more pragmatic will draw attention to examples of pockets of peace and prosperity defined either by business segments or geographic pockets or select companies.

As always, everything you say of India, the opposite is also true. Economic and political diversity is increasing between states, and there is every combination of economic performance, political ideology, and business friendliness existing. Even within states there are oases and deserts. Ask any sales manager in any business to analyse the business and he will confirm it. So that's the first clue to surviving the short term.

This phrase leapt to my mind on a recent visit to China. While today, the economic differences between India and China are very stark all we need to do is drive through Shanghai or look at the economic indices , the similarity in the structure and culture of these markets is very real too. This makes for a genuine opportunity not one that is defined by hype and hope for Indian companies to leverage their business experience and skills to create businesses in China which can be at least as large as what they have in India.

The Customer Religion The Economic Times - November A business leader with a wry sense of humour recently observed that since the main reason being given by almost all businesses for slow consumer sales was the delay in the festival season and the fewer auspicious dates for marriages, the Hindu calendar should figure as a key variable for annual sales forecasting. I guess a corollary to that is that one of the key routes to stimulating market growth would be to lobby with the Hindu high priests and persuade them to be a wee bit more market friendly in their interpretation of the stars!

Having determined that astrology and sentimentality of the consumer confidence kind can't be cured in the short term at least, corporate speak is now about surviving and emerging stronger from this continuing slowdown, through "better customer understanding" and "innovation". I would have felt a lot better if the connection between the two were made more explicit as in "our plans are to obtain and use superior customer understanding to innovate new kinds of offers that customers find more acceptable than competition offers or than not buying at all".

The Business of Branding The Economic Times - June The last time I wrote in this column about the telecom business, a senior person from within the business called saying he wanted to salute my courage - the 'fools rush in where telecom experts fear to tread' sort of courage. When The Going Gets Tough The Economic Times - April It is the winter of our discontent again, as the pendulum of consumer demand journeys from the 'there's lots more where this came from' end to the 'Wonder where it disappeared' end.

For many of the A league companies, even the game of maintaining bottom line growth, despite flagging top line growth, has been played out. There is a limit to which the costs or operational efficiencies can be extracted from a given business system.

For many less agile companies, the red ink is happening, as the overall growth of their market slows down, and their more aggressive competitors gobble up market share. Enriching The Consumer Base The Economic Times - February The traditional marketing paradigm is about extracting money resident within the consumer base 'capturing customer surplus' is perhaps a more politically correct phrase.

However, watching growth aspirations of companies outstrip the growth in purchasing power of the Indian consumer base, I do believe that the time has come for companies to adopt an additional marketing paradigm - that of enriching the consumer base.

The idea is that companies, individually or collectively, should invest significantly in feeding the goose that lays the golden eggs, or to use a more rural market analogy, put nutrients back into the land that they reap from, even though they are not in the animal feeds business or in the soil nutrients business.

The idea also is that companies should accord the 'enrich' activity the same seriousness as the 'extract' activity - as a key element of the marketing strategy, and not just something that is relegated to the corporate PR department. Car Wars The Economic Times - 10 July Maruti has had a lot of unsympathetic press lately, and the media post mortem of its strategy is not yet over.

When Titan decimated HMT, the 'timekeeper of the nation', there was no editorial saying "Titans of industry can suddenly look like endangered species if the evolutionary tide of the market moves away from them" Business Standard, July 5, The mechanical to quartz shift in the watch market definitely was an evolutionary tide, the like of which has not happened in the car market.

Another evolutionary tide, the scooter segment of the two wheeler market collapsing, did not earn Bajaj Auto the screaming headline "market share hits an all time low" Economic Times, June The dotcom industry seems to be in the same mode nowadays.