Investing in post-conflict countries in central america

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New investment can provide much needed jobs, allow the government to receive taxes and of course bring about a feel good factor across the country as a foreign venture gives a vote of confidence in the local economy. Early entry to an open field can mean superior market share in the long run. One classic example of this approach is Ecobank, a successful multinational bank headquartered in Benin which saw an opportunity in the poor and conflict afflicted Central African region — providing investment, corporate and domestic financial services the Bank has successfully expanded and grown in the region, including post-conflict countries like Sierra Leone and Burundi.

Which post-conflict countries offer the best prospects? This is of course a hotly debated topic and many would wince at this list, but even the most miserable war torn regions can eventually enjoy an economic miracle. These three countries are all currently suffering from a conflict, but once the dust eventually settles offer good long term economic prospects. Somalia Somalia remains volatile in terms of its security situation; in particular the fight against the Islamist group Al-Shabaab continues and food shortages pose huge development issues.

But at the same time a steadily improving security environment offers massive potential thanks to an active diaspora, who if given the opportunity to return home en masse could energise growth and revitalise the country by bringing much needed skills, funds and fresh thinking. Somalia also enjoys significant oil reserves that could produce significant revenue and proximity to the Gulf States which could provide cross border investment.

Despite this the country was and remains wealthy by African and Arab standards. The country has been governed under a socialist system for the last 30 years, but if it moved decisively towards a capitalist economy, it would create unprecedented new opportunities for investors. Unfortunately the short term prospects are poor, the nation is divided between armed feuding tribal factions, with little sense of central control, in the south of the country the sparsely populated Sahara region is home to criminal gangs which are involved in smuggling arms, drugs and people.

During the conflicts education became politicised as the warring factions used schools to spread ideology and universities took sides. Education spending fell as defence spending rose. In the wake of the conflicts, education spending increased, but remained insufficient to sustain reforms.

The conflicts brought previously taboo issues out into the open, including inequality, racial and cultural discrimination. Education reforms have attempted to address some of these. War also underlined the importance of decentralising education and enabling community-based management of schools.

This approach has been particularly successful in El Salvador. The experience of these three countries offers some lessons for other post-conflict countries that have a brief window of opportunity to push through reform.

The report offers a detailed list of recommendations, including: Do develop a clear vision of education reform, backed by strong political commitment. Build a broad consensus and de-politicise education systems. Do start technical preparation including a thorough analysis of needs and costs as early as possible, even before conflict ends.

Target education spending at the poorest groups. Do decentralise education systems and involve communities. Transfer resources to the local level, and modernise and decentralise the education ministry.

Do not put unreasonable demands on the education system to the detriment of basic, essential goals. Do not disregard the achievements of previous administrations, whatever their politics.